The most critical week for Wall Street this summer starts Monday. A flood of second-quarter earnings from major players in tech, finance, and crypto will land just as the Federal Reserve holds its last meeting before September. According to CNBC, this tight window, filled with new data, political tension, and economic uncertainty, could expose cracks in the market’s recent rally. The S&P 500 just notched its 12th all-time high of the year and closed above 6,300 for the first time ever, but traders are watching next week closely for any signs that the momentum is fading. Mastercard, crypto firms lead high-stakes reporting slate Out of all the names reporting, Mastercard has one of the strongest records. The company is set to release its numbers on Thursday. Historically, it has beaten earnings-per-share estimates 93% of the time and sees an average 1.7% stock bump after results. Nate Svensson, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, placed a $650 price target on Mastercard, calling for a 15% upside from Thursday’s close. The stock is already up around 7% this year. Out of the 40 analysts covering the stock, 30 have a strong buy or buy rating. But Mastercard’s not alone. Bespoke Investment Group screened for companies that have beaten earnings 80% of the time and tend to gain 1% or more after results. CNBC reported that several of next week’s reporting companies fell into that group. Names like Microsoft, Spotify, and Lam Research have all historically delivered surprises. In crypto, all eyes are on Coinbase , Marathon, and Riot, which are also due to report. These companies sit at the center of retail investor attention and could swing hard on earnings day. Whether their numbers justify recent moves or spark corrections will feed into broader volatility. The market rally has held firm through July despite political headlines and soft economic concerns. The Magnificent Seven, the group of leading tech stocks, posted their longest advance since 2023 earlier this week. But signs of fatigue are creeping in. Opendoor Technologies, an online real estate stock heavily hyped by hedge fund manager Eric Jackson, soared Monday, only to slide Tuesday. That pattern raised alarms about speculative trades losing steam. Federal Reserve meets as Trump turns down rhetoric At the same time as earnings pour in, the Federal Reserve will hold its two-day policy meeting. This is the last one until September. Pressure on the Fed is ultra high, as per usual. On Thursday, President Donald Trump and Chair Jerome Powell appeared together during a tour of the new Fed headquarters construction site in Washington. Trump, who has repeatedly criticized Powell since returning to office, seemed to ease up this week, saying Powell is “going to be out pretty soon anyway.” Still, Powell is expected to face direct questions from reporters Wednesday, especially about whether the central bank can continue to act independently with political noise increasing. The Fed is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged, holding between 4.25% and 4.50%, based on CME futures data. But tone and language will be under a microscope, especially given rising concerns about fiscal tightening and external influence. Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, pointed out that the Nasdaq-100 hasn’t closed below its 20-day moving average for 60 straight sessions, a stretch not seen since 1999, right before the dot-com bubble burst. He said, “The main takeaway is that we may encounter some turbulence, even though it’s unlikely to mark a major peak.” Cryptopolitan Academy: Coming Soon - A New Way to Earn Passive Income with DeFi in 2025. Learn More
