{"id":10569,"date":"2025-07-18T10:00:30","date_gmt":"2025-07-18T10:00:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/bitcoin-rally-not-over-yet-short-term-holder-mvrv-suggests-further-upside\/"},"modified":"2025-07-18T10:00:30","modified_gmt":"2025-07-18T10:00:30","slug":"bitcoin-rally-not-over-yet-short-term-holder-mvrv-suggests-further-upside","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/bitcoin-rally-not-over-yet-short-term-holder-mvrv-suggests-further-upside\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Rally Not Over Yet? Short-Term Holder MVRV Suggests Further Upside"},"content":{"rendered":"

As Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates just below the $120,000 mark, concerns are mounting over whether the top cryptocurrency\u2019s bullish momentum is fading. However, some analysts believe BTC still has room to grow, citing key on-chain indicators.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Rally Far From Over<\/h2>\n

According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Darkfost, Bitcoin’s rally is not yet over. The analyst points to the Short-Term Holder (STH) Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicator as evidence.<\/p>\n

For context, STH MVRV measures the profitability of Bitcoin held by short-term investors – typically those who acquired BTC within the last 155 days – by comparing the current market price to their average purchase price.<\/p>\n

When the STH MVRV is high, it suggests short-term holders are in profit and may sell. On the contrary, a low or negative MVRV indicates undervaluation and potential for further upside.<\/p>\n

Darkfost noted that during the current market cycle, unrealized profits among STH have yet to surpass the 42% threshold. Historically, every time the STH MVRV reaches around 1.35 – implying a 35% unrealized profit – it has triggered a wave of profit-taking, followed by short-term price pullbacks.<\/p>\n

As of now, the STH MVRV stands at approximately 1.15, well below the profit-taking zone. The analyst attributes this to the STH realized price exceeding $100,000 for the first time in Bitcoin’s history on July 11. At the time of writing, this realized price has risen above $102,000, providing BTC with a robust support base.<\/p>\n

\"bitcoin<\/p>\n

To clarify, STH realized price refers to the average price at which all Bitcoin held by short-term holders was acquired. When Bitcoin\u2019s current market price remains above this level, it reflects growing market confidence among newer investors.<\/p>\n

Darkfost added that BTC could rise another 20\u201325% before the STH MVRV reaches its critical level again. If this projection holds, Bitcoin could potentially hit $150,000 before the next wave of widespread profit-taking.<\/p>\n

Fresh Liquidity May Help, But Exercise Caution<\/h2>\n

Bitcoin may also benefit from fresh liquidity entering the market. Fellow CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha recently highlighted a $2 billion USDT deposit into major derivatives trading platforms, signaling potential leverage buildup.<\/p>\n

Similarly, favorable macroeconomic conditions are expected to support risk-on assets like Bitcoin. The recent weakness in the USD has fuelled optimism around capital rotating into cryptocurrencies and other high risk-reward assets.<\/p>\n

\u200b\u200bHowever, BTC inflows to centralized exchanges have been steadily rising as well, suggesting a short-term correction could be on the horizon. At press time, BTC trades at $118,862, down 0.2% in the past 24 hours.<\/p>\n

\"bitcoin\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates just below the $120,000 mark, concerns are mounting over whether the top cryptocurrency\u2019s bullish momentum is fading. However, some analysts believe BTC still has room to grow, citing key on-chain indicators. Bitcoin Rally Far From Over According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Darkfost, Bitcoin’s rally is not yet…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10570,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[10,565,9,12,13,14,63,16,64,1918,278,4186],"class_list":["post-10569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-mvrv","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-btc","tag-btcusdt","tag-crypto","tag-cryptocurrency","tag-cryptoquant","tag-digital-asset","tag-market-value-to-realized-value","tag-short-term-holders","tag-sth-mvrv"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10569","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10569"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10569\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10570"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10569"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10569"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10569"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}