{"id":14172,"date":"2025-10-08T13:00:21","date_gmt":"2025-10-08T13:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/140k-or-bust-simulation-says-bitcoins-odds-are-now-50-50\/"},"modified":"2025-10-08T13:00:21","modified_gmt":"2025-10-08T13:00:21","slug":"140k-or-bust-simulation-says-bitcoins-odds-are-now-50-50","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/140k-or-bust-simulation-says-bitcoins-odds-are-now-50-50\/","title":{"rendered":"$140K Or Bust? Simulation Says Bitcoin\u2019s Odds Are Now 50-50"},"content":{"rendered":"

According to economist Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin has a 50% chance of topping $140,000 before the month ends. He posted that likelihood on X and backed it with simulation work that uses a decade of price moves to map likely outcomes.<\/p>\n

Simulation Based On Historical Data<\/h2>\n

Peterson said the model runs hundreds of simulations using daily Bitcoin<\/a> prices going back to 2015. Based on those runs, he put the chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140,000 at 50%.<\/p>\n

He also gave a 43% probability that the price will end the month below $136k. At the time he spoke, Bitcoin was trading at $121,200. That means a rise of about 11% would be needed to reach $140,000 from the current level.<\/p>\n

\n

Half of Bitcoin’s October gains may have already happened, according to this AI simulation.
\nThere is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k
\nBut there is a 43% chance Bitcoin finishes below $136k. pic.twitter.com\/LPhFr0mry9<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 7, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\"Bitcoin\"<\/p>\n

Bitcoin set a fresh all-time high of $126,200 on Monday, then cooled off. The coin began October<\/a> at roughly $116,500, so the month has already produced gains.<\/p>\n

According to data, October has been the second-best month on average since 2013, with typical gains of 20%. Reports have disclosed that November is the strongest month historically, averaging 46% gains since 2013.<\/p>\n

No Human Emotion<\/h2>\n

Peterson described his forecast as driven by data rather than human emotion. He said each projection follows price changes that mirror Bitcoin\u2019s past volatility and rhythm.<\/p>\n

That approach aims to remove bias from short-term sentiment. Still, there are limits to what historical simulations can show.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin has sometimes moved in ways that did not match past patterns. Market reactions, policy moves, and other forces can push prices off the script that history suggests.<\/p>\n

\"\"
\nMarket Sentiment Remains Bullish<\/p>\n

Other analysts on social platforms urged continued optimism after the recent high. One analyst said the market was retesting prior highs and could move higher.<\/p>\n

Another wrote that pressure was building for further gains. These views sit alongside data-led forecasts and are being watched by traders and funds.<\/p>\n

\n

Bitcoin is the new hurdle rate.<\/p>\n

If you can’t beat it, you have to buy it.<\/p>\n

I explained on @SquawkCNBC<\/a> this morning why so many investors are not producing the returns they think they are. pic.twitter.com\/re98rjCDua<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Anthony Pompliano \"\ud83c\udf2a\" (@APompliano) October 7, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Macro Notes From A Prominent Investor<\/p>\n

Reports have also carried comments from Anthony Pompliano, who argued on CNBC that Bitcoin\u2019s rally can continue if governments and central banks keep printing money.<\/p>\n

\n

JUST IN: Anthony Pompliano tells CNBC Bitcoin will never stop going up.<\/p>\n

“They will never stop printing money.” pic.twitter.com\/qeWJnTsIb3<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) October 7, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

His view links monetary policy to Bitcoin demand, and it is widely shared among supporters who see the asset as a hedge.<\/p>\n

Featured image from Verdict, chart from TradingView<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

According to economist Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin has a 50% chance of topping $140,000 before the month ends. He posted that likelihood on X and backed it with simulation work that uses a decade of price moves to map likely outcomes. Simulation Based On Historical Data Peterson said the model runs hundreds of simulations using daily…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[173,10,9,12,14,210,5519],"class_list":["post-14172","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-ai","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-btc","tag-crypto","tag-digital-currency","tag-simulation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14172","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14172"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14172\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14172"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14172"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14172"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}