He did not provide a specific probability for either outcome but emphasized that a Black Swan event\u2014a term used to describe a rare, unexpected event that can drastically impact markets\u2014cannot be ruled out. While noting that such an extraordinary downturn was previously unlikely, he now concedes that recent shifts in the macro landscape may leave room for it:\u201cTake your bets, I would say that a Black Swan event was very unlikely in the last few months, but ask me now, I would not rule it out, rather welcome it.\u201d<\/p>\n
In direct contrast, crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) responded with a more bullish outlook, asserting that the bottom is already behind us. He referenced a track record of Bitcoin price reversals around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, claiming it works \u201c14 out of 16 times,\u201d or roughly 87.5% of the time. \u201cNot guarantees, but an 87.5% chance, granted the chart below and all the confluences I already presented. So far so good.\u201d<\/p>\n
His approach relies on mapping out price movements in proximity to FOMC dates, noting that markets often price in interest rate decisions (and related news) before official announcements. Astronomer\u2019s method contends that Bitcoin typically finds local bottoms in a window spanning from up to five \u201c2D bars\u201d before an FOMC date to the day of the meeting itself.<\/p>\n
\u201cAll it requires is flip on a daily (or 2 daily in my case to keep the chart clean) timeframe, plot out all the dates FOMC meeting appeared, and see what price did. This shows that indeed price tends to reverse when time is nearing into FOMC. The caveat is that the price reverses before or at the very latest, right at the FOMC day,\u201d the analyst writes.<\/p>\n
He points out that the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for March 19, meaning the bottom\u2014if the historical pattern holds\u2014should appear no later than that date: \u201cWorks almost every time, 14 out of 16 times in fact (or 87.5% of the time)\u2026 The time difference the bottom happens versus the FOMC day is usually 0 to 5 2D bars before the exact date. Given the next FOMC is the 19th of March, that means the low is in the latest that day and the earliest the 5th of March.\u201d<\/p>\n
To bolster his argument, Astronomer points to what he perceives as \u201cpeaking fear\u201d in the market. He views heightened pessimism and \u201ccautionary posts out of nowhere\u201d from established traders as typical signals that a rebound could be imminent: \u201cSentiment wise, fear is peaking to hilarious levels. Even \u2018Reputable\u2019 traders are protecting their reputation […] I don\u2019t blame anyone\u2019s methods, but I take it as a great sign of a bottom.\u201d<\/p>\n
At press time, BTC traded at $83,277.<\/p>\n
![\"bitcoin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/BTCUSDT_2025-03-13_11-10-45.png?resize=3628%2C1605\")
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
In the ongoing debate over Bitcoin\u2019s market trajectory, two prominent crypto analysts have shared contrasting viewpoints on X, underscoring the community\u2019s divided sentiment. While one maintains that a drastic downturn remains possible, the other posits that the worst of the market downturn has already passed\u2014citing a notable 87.5% probability. Bitcoin Bears In Trouble? Crypto analyst…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[87],"tags":[10,1275,227,9,48,12,89],"class_list":["post-5701","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-bottom","tag-bitcoin-bull-run","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5701","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5701"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5701\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5701"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5701"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5701"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}