{"id":640,"date":"2024-10-25T15:00:22","date_gmt":"2024-10-25T15:00:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/bitcoin-to-hit-125000-by-year-end-if-trump-wins-says-standard-chartered\/"},"modified":"2024-10-25T15:00:22","modified_gmt":"2024-10-25T15:00:22","slug":"bitcoin-to-hit-125000-by-year-end-if-trump-wins-says-standard-chartered","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/bitcoin-to-hit-125000-by-year-end-if-trump-wins-says-standard-chartered\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin To Hit $125,000 By Year-End If Trump Wins, Says Standard Chartered"},"content":{"rendered":"

In a research paper dated October 24, Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that Bitcoin could surge to $125,000 by the end of the year if former President Donald Trump secures victory in the upcoming US presidential election.<\/p>\n

When Bitcoin Could Hit $125,000<\/h2>\n

Kendrick’s analysis<\/a> hinges on the interplay between Bitcoin’s price movements and the US political landscape. “We use daily BTC vol levels and popular strike levels to estimate post-election price moves,” he states in the report titled Bitcoin \u2013 Post-US Election Playbook. According to Kendrick, Bitcoin prices have been ascending in recent weeks, aligning with other trades favored by Trump supporters.<\/p>\n

The report forecasts that Bitcoin is likely to reach approximately $73,000 by Election Day on November 5, nearing its all-time high of $73,800 recorded in March. “Our base case is that Bitcoin rises to around $73,000 by Election Day, catching up to betting-market probabilities of a Trump win,” Kendrick notes.<\/p>\n

Betting markets are reflecting increasing confidence in a Trump victory. “The average betting odds of a Trump victory now stand at 59%, according to RealClearPolitics. Furthermore, conditional probabilities in specific betting markets (Polymarket) suggest a 75% chance of a Republican sweep if Trump wins the presidency,” the report highlights.<\/p>\n

Should Trump win, Kendrick anticipates immediate bullish momentum for Bitcoin. “Assuming a Trump victory, options break-even implies a further price rise of about 4% when the presidential outcome is known, and around 10% in total within a few more days,” he explains.<\/p>\n

The potential for a Republican sweep of Congress amplifies this outlook. “If the Republicans sweep Congress, our year-end target level of USD 125,000 should come into view,” Kendrick asserts. This scenario is underpinned by significant open interest in Bitcoin call options expiring on December 27 at the $80,000 strike price, suggesting rapid movement toward that level.<\/p>\n

What If Harris Wins?<\/h2>\n

In contrast, if Vice President Kamala Harris emerges victorious, the report suggests a temporary setback for Bitcoin prices. “If Harris wins, we see BTC initially trading lower but still ending 2024 at fresh highs around $75,000,” Kendrick projects. This implies a resilient long-term outlook for Bitcoin regardless of the election outcome, though the magnitude of gains would differ.<\/p>\n

Kendrick emphasizes the role of options market data in gauging potential price movements. “Options info helps estimate initial post-election price moves,” he states. The heavy trading volumes and popular strike levels serve as indicators of investor expectations and market positioning ahead of the election.<\/p>\n

The recent dip in Bitcoin’s price to a local low of $65,200 was addressed as well. Kendrick believes this is “likely to be the last before the U.S. presidential election,” suggesting that any short-term corrections may be overshadowed by the impending political developments.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $67,520.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In a research paper dated October 24, Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that Bitcoin could surge to $125,000 by the end of the year if former President Donald Trump secures victory in the upcoming US presidential election. When Bitcoin Could Hit $125,000 Kendrick’s analysis hinges on the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[87],"tags":[10,670,9,48,151,671,12,89,264,672],"class_list":["post-640","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-donald-trump","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-bitcoin-price-prediction","tag-bitcoin-standard-chartered","tag-btc","tag-btc-price","tag-donald-trump","tag-standard-chartered-bitcoin-price-prediction"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/640","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=640"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/640\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=640"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=640"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/coinsrise.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=640"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}